The New England Patriots didn’t just win their 10th game of the season — they took command of the AFC. At 10-2, the Patriots are now the clear top seed in the conference, with their defense suffocating opponents and quarterback Mac Jones delivering clutch throws under pressure. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles, once the NFC’s unchallenged powerhouse at 8-3, suddenly look vulnerable. A late-season stumble against the Los Angeles Rams — coupled with the Chicago Bears’ surprising surge — has thrown the NFC playoff race wide open. Here’s the thing: this isn’t just about records. It’s about momentum, injuries, and who’s peaking at the right time.
How the AFC Landscape Shifted Overnight
The Denver Broncos (9-2) remain a force in the AFC West, but the Patriots’ consistency has been the story. Unlike Denver’s explosive offense, New England has won with defense, ball control, and timely special teams. Their 27-20 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 12 wasn’t pretty — but it was effective. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts (8-3) still lead the AFC South despite losing to Kansas City, thanks to their earlier wins. The real surprise? The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) found their rhythm again, rallying from 14 points down to beat the Colts in overtime. That win — their third in four games — shows Patrick Mahomes isn’t done yet. But the clock is ticking. After their Thanksgiving loss to the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs’ playoff path is now a tightrope walk.The AFC wild card picture is a mess. The Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) stunned everyone by sweeping the Lions, a feat that’s now hanging over Detroit like a guillotine. The San Francisco 49ers (8-4) are in, thanks to their Monday night win over Carolina. And the Seattle Seahawks (8-3), despite a heartbreaking 21-19 loss to the Rams on a missed 61-yard field goal, still hold the top wild card spot with an 89.8% chance to make the playoffs — the highest in the NFC.
NFC Chaos: Rams Rise, Eagles Fall, Panthers Hang On
The Los Angeles Rams didn’t just beat the Seahawks — they sent a message. With Matthew Stafford throwing for 287 yards and two touchdowns, and rookie linebacker Nick Scott sealing the game with a fourth-quarter interception, the Rams (9-2) now sit atop the NFC West. The Eagles? They’re reeling. A 24-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week exposed their shaky offensive line and inconsistent passing game. Now, with the Rams and Bears both at 8-3, Philadelphia’s divisional lead is evaporating.And then there’s the Seattle Seahawks. They lost. They still lead the wild card race. How? Because their schedule softens in December, and their defense — ranked fourth in the league — is peaking. Their 89.8% playoff probability isn’t a fluke. It’s a projection based on their remaining opponents: three teams with losing records, including a crucial rematch with the Rams on December 26. That game? It could decide who wins the NFC West.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Heroics and Bryce Young’s Struggles
In Detroit, Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t just play — he carried the Lions to a 34-27 overtime win over the New York Giants. On just 14 carries, he rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Add 11 catches for 45 yards and another score, and you’ve got a 264-yard, three-touchdown masterpiece. He’s not just a rookie — he’s the future of the franchise. But even Gibbs couldn’t save the Lions’ playoff hopes after being swept by Green Bay. Their 70.6% playoff probability still looks good — but it’s shrinking.Meanwhile, in Carolina, Bryce Young looked lost. Against San Francisco, he completed just 18 of 32 passes for 156 yards and two interceptions. The Panthers’ offense managed only 230 total yards and converted one of seven third downs. Yet, they intercepted Brock Purdy three times — a testament to their defense’s grit. Still, with a 6-6 record and a 10.5% playoff chance, they’re clinging to hope. Their only path? Win out, hope the Buccaneers stumble, and pray Young finds his rhythm before Week 18.
What’s Next? The Games That Will Decide It All
December is coming — and it’s a minefield. The Rams-Seahawks rematch on December 26 isn’t just a divisional game. It’s a playoff seeding decider. If the Rams win, they likely clinch the NFC West. If Seattle pulls it off, they’ll be the top wild card and could host a game. Meanwhile, the Eagles face the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay in their final three games — two of the NFC’s most dangerous teams. A 1-2 finish could drop them to the No. 5 seed — and a road game against the Rams or Seahawks.The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) are another wild card. Aaron Rodgers’ wrist injury is worsening. His 2025 season has been a battle, and Mike Tomlin’s defense — once a strength — is now a boom-or-bust operation. One bad week, and they’re out. The Houston Texans (6-5), led by DeMeco Ryans’ top-ranked defense, could sneak in if C.J. Stroud returns healthy. But with no clear QB solution, they’re a gamble.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just about who makes the playoffs. It’s about legacy. The Patriots are positioning themselves for their first Super Bowl run since 2018. The Rams are proving they’re still a contender, even without a superstar quarterback. The Eagles? They’re being tested — and they’re failing the test. Meanwhile, the Lions, once the NFC’s darlings, are now a cautionary tale: talent isn’t enough without consistency.And let’s not forget the human element. Jahmyr Gibbs, 22, just became the first rookie since Saquon Barkley to eclipse 200 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards in a single game. Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick, is fighting to save his career. Mac Jones, once labeled a bust, is now leading his team into January. This is football. Raw. Real. Unforgiving.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Seahawks make the playoffs despite losing to the Rams?
Even with a 21-19 loss, the Seahawks’ 89.8% playoff probability comes from their remaining schedule (three games against teams with a combined 14-22 record), their top-ranked defense, and tiebreaker advantages over the Buccaneers and Panthers. They’ve also won head-to-head matchups against key wild card rivals like the 49ers and Bears, giving them the edge in tiebreakers if records are tied.
Why are the Eagles in trouble despite still being 8-3?
The Eagles’ offense has stalled, averaging just 19.3 points per game over their last three contests. Their offensive line has allowed 11 sacks in that span, and Jalen Hurts’ accuracy has dropped to 59.4%. With the Rams and Bears both ahead in the standings and the Buccaneers gaining steam, Philadelphia’s path to a first-round bye is gone — and they may be fighting just to avoid a road playoff game.
Can the Carolina Panthers still make the playoffs?
Technically, yes — but it’s a long shot. Carolina needs to win all four of their remaining games, including matchups against the Falcons and Saints. They also need the Buccaneers to lose at least two of their last four, and the Panthers must win the head-to-head tiebreaker. With Bryce Young’s struggles and only a 10.5% probability, it’s more wishful thinking than realistic.
What’s the biggest threat to the Patriots’ top seed?
The Baltimore Ravens (6-5) are the only AFC team with a better division record than New England. If the Patriots lose their final two games — including a tough matchup against the Chiefs in Week 17 — and the Ravens win out, Baltimore could steal the top seed thanks to their superior AFC North record. The Patriots’ schedule is favorable, but complacency could cost them.
Why is the Lions’ sweep by the Packers so damaging?
In the NFC, head-to-head results are the first tiebreaker. The Packers swept the Lions, meaning if both finish 9-8, Green Bay gets the playoff spot. With Detroit’s remaining schedule including the 49ers and Buccaneers, they’re unlikely to finish better than 9-8. That sweep effectively ends their chances of winning the NFC North and forces them into a wild card battle they’re now losing.
Who’s the most dangerous wild card team right now?
The Seattle Seahawks. They’ve won six of their last seven games, boast the NFL’s third-best red zone defense, and have a defense that forces turnovers in key moments. Even with a 1-1 record against the Rams, their ability to win close games — and their favorable December schedule — makes them the most likely wild card team to make a deep playoff run.